Grayscale Trust has become a force that cannot be ignored in the crypto asset market.
On September 21, BTC fell from the highest of US$10,988 to US$10,417. Two days later, Hui Gray took a “sweep” and bought 17,100 BTC. This large increase in holdings seems to have boosted market confidence. After that, the BTC daily line rose to a maximum of 10,956 US dollars.
According to the data of QKL123, as of September 28, Grayscale holds a total of 449,800 BTC, which is equivalent to 2.4% of the current circulation of BTC. In addition, Grayscale is also equipped with encrypted assets such as ETH, BCH, and LTC.
Frequent “buy, buy, buy” make Grayscale become the “big head” of the encryption market. Grayscale believes that BTC, which has the characteristics of scarcity and decentralization, can be used as a means of storing value and a way to escape currency inflation. “From multiple indicators, the current BTC market structure is similar to the one before the super bull market in 2016. The performance is extremely similar.”
Analyzing Grayscale’s actions in the past three months, it can be found that it has adopted the idea of opening positions on the left, and more often buys when BTC falls or after falling, revealing that Grayscale is optimistic about the BTC market outlook.
As a professional investment institution and BTC giant whale, the trend of Grayscale provides a vane for retail investors to a certain extent. However, it should be noted that the continued increase of Grayscale’s holdings does not mean that the bull market has “stabilized.” The institution’s risk control capabilities and anti-risk capabilities must be stronger. For retail investors, it is still necessary to rationally allocate assets and control risks, and avoid blindly co-investing and brainless studs.
Grayscale increases its holdings of 17,100 BTC
Since late September, the entire crypto asset market has gradually cooled down. After Uniswap issued the currency, the market did not see any violent explosions, and as the yields of various DeFi protocols fell, many investors returned to traditional assets such as BTC.
In the past few years, the encrypted asset market has shown a clear pattern. After going through a round of rising market in the middle of the year, there is often a correction in the third quarter. At this point in time, the market trend represented by BTC is particularly worthy of attention.
After investigation, it was found that many investors have started a “principal defense war” at this stage. When DeFi is cooling down and the “big pie” volatility is weakened, some users choose to settle down and wait and see if they are empty. But just recently, the Grayscale Trust, which is the “big head” of the currency circle, has begun to “buy, buy, buy” again.
According to the data of QKL123, on September 23 and 24, the Grayscale BTC Trust Fund bought 6,800 and 10,300 BTC, which was the largest increase in holdings in the past month. The two-day time grayscale bought 17,100 BTC in total, worth about 186 million US dollars. As of September 28, Grayscale holds a total of 449,800 BTC, which is equivalent to 2.4% of BTC’s current circulation.
As the first crypto asset investment institution to report to the SEC, Grayscale Trust’s holdings reflect to a certain extent the amount of funds that traditional institutional funds enter the cryptocurrency market.
According to Bitpush statistics, in addition to BTC worth 4.7 billion U.S. dollars, there are nearly 800 million U.S. dollars in ETH, accounting for 13.5% of the total investment, and the remaining 300 million U.S. dollars are BCH, ETC, LTC, XRP, Zcash and other encrypted assets.
Grayscale has repeatedly increased its holdings to show its optimism about the bull market in the crypto market, which also means that more and more qualified investors are entering the currency market. Grayscale official website shows that only individuals with annual income of more than 200,000 U.S. dollars (or joint annual income of 300,000 U.S. dollars with spouse), or net assets of more than 1 million U.S. dollars (excluding main residence), can participate in Grayscale private equity.
What is the logic of these high-net-worth individuals and traditional capital forces buying crypto assets frantically? Gray said that with the acceleration of global inflation, the market’s demand for scarce assets such as BTC is growing. By measuring some BTC indicators, Grayscale believes that the current BTC market structure is very similar to the performance before the super bull market in 2016.
The gray scale distinguishes the market structure by the holding time of the holders. Holding BTC for 1 to 3 years is defined as a holder, and moving BTC within 90 days is known as speculators.
According to gray statistics, the number of BTC speculators in the market is decreasing, and the number of believers is increasing, which is similar to the trend in early 2016. In addition, the current Daily Active Addresses (Daily Active Addresses) is at the highest level since 2017. This shows that the current BTC network is highly accepted and may also herald the beginning of a new market cycle.
“Due to the scarcity and decentralization of BTC, we believe it can be used as a store of value and a way to escape currency inflation,” Gray said in a report. In the past ten years, BTC It has evolved from a small experiment to a leader in a new asset class, just as computers and the Internet have changed the way people store, process, and share information, BTC has fundamentally enhanced the way it stores, processes, and exchanges value. “In the digital world, BTC may replace gold and become the ultimate store of value asset.”
“Whale” trend may become a market vane
Unlike other encrypted asset funds, Grayscale’s investment behavior is open and transparent. As a giant whale in the current crypto market, its trends undoubtedly have a huge impact on the market. These impacts not only stop at the currency price changes brought about by buying and selling, but also bring market confidence and fluctuations in investor decision-making.
Based on the recent gray-scale action analysis, after its holdings increased on September 23 and 24, BTC trended significantly upward. On September 24, the opening price of BTC was 10,452 US dollars. After that, the BTC daily line went out of four consecutive positives and rose to 10,956 US dollars on September 28. At 3 o’clock in the afternoon of September 29, BTC fell back slightly to 10,730 USD, which was still higher than the gray holding price.
From this round of trends, it can be seen that the large-scale increase in Grayscale’s holdings has driven market confidence to a certain extent. There are many investors who choose to follow to buy, which further lifted the BTC market price.
According to the data of QKL123, from June 9 to September 28 this year, the number of BTC held in Grayscale increased from 365,100 to 449,800, and the holdings of BTC increased by 84,700 in more than three months.
Among them, June 11-24 was the first intensive increase in holdings, with a total increase of 21,000 BTC; July 22 to August 14 was the second intensive increase in holdings with a total of 27,700 BTC BTC; August 26 to September 2 is the third stage of intensive holdings, with a total increase of 11,700 BTC; September 23 to 24 is the fourth stage of intensive holdings, with an increase of 17,100 BTC .
In contrast to the trend of BTC, in the first stage of grayscale holdings, BTC is in a narrow downward channel, and the price fluctuates around 9,000 dollars; in the second stage, BTC begins to strengthen, rising from 9,300 dollars to 11,800 dollars; in the third stage, BTC rises in resistance , After rising to US$12,050, it fell to US$11,150; in the fourth stage, after BTC fell below US$11,000, the price was around US$10,350.
On the whole, except for the increase in holdings during the third phase of grayscale, the other three increase in holdings were selected when the currency price fell or after falling, and the number of purchases was more than 11,700 in the third phase. It is not difficult to see that Grayscale adopts the strategy of opening positions on the left. This strategy is more in line with the concept of value investment, that is, Grayscale believes that the intrinsic value of BTC is higher, so it does not let go of every opportunity to buy at a low price.
Based on a rough calculation at the current BTC price of $10,730, Grayscale did not have much profit or loss in buying BTC in the past three months. It is more like executing long-term investment, waiting for the bull market to come.
As a professional investment institution, the gray investment behavior has certain reference significance for retail investors. However, it should be noted that the continuous “buy, buy and buy” of Grayscale does not mean that the bull market has stabilized. Generally speaking, professional investment institutions will adopt various financial instruments to hedge their risks, and in the case of stronger funds, short-term price fluctuations will not have an excessive impact on the gray scale. But for retail investors, it is more necessary to rationally allocate assets and control risks based on their own circumstances, and avoid blindly following investment and brainless studs.
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