Author | Qin Xiaofeng
Editor | Hao Fangzhou
Today is November 16, 12 days have passed since the release of the ETH 2.0 deposit contract address.
In the past period of time, the progress of ETH 2.0 has attracted attention. Now, there is only less than half a month left until the ETH 2.0 genesis block set time (December 1st). What is the progress? Will ETH 2.0 arrive as scheduled?
Odaily Planet Daily found the answer by analyzing the deposit contract address and found some interesting points.
(1) The deposit progress is slow and the release is more likely to be delayed
It is shown that the current ETH balance in the address is 94848, which is 524288 ETH from the minimum required to start the ETH 2.0 genesis block, and the progress is only 18.09% completed. As follows:
Calculated on average, in the past, an average of 7,904 ETH was deposited every day; it would take at least 66 days to meet the minimum requirements for startup conditions. In other words, according to the current average progress, 524,288 ETH will not be deposited until at least January 10, 2021, and the founding block will be generated 7 days after reaching it (January 17).
However, the average does not fully reflect the sample situation, and the median may be a good choice.
Odaily Planet Daily counts the changes of ETH in the deposit address in the past 12 days, as shown below:
According to the data, the median is currently 3695; according to this progress, it will take at least 140 days for the deposit contract to reach the start standard, which is to start in late February next year.
The above two calculations may deviate from the actual results. After all, the daily deposit volume does not follow a linear law. Take the last two days as an example, the daily deposit volume has rebounded to more than 10,000.
But in any case, there is a high probability that the official creation block will be delayed.
According to the official plan, the original launch time of the genesis block is December 1st, which requires that the minimum starting conditions must be met on November 24th. At present, there are only 9 days left, which is equivalent to an average of 47,000 ETH deposited every day. It seems impossible to complete this task.
Why is the enthusiasm for deposits insufficient?
A very important reason is that the ETH deposited by users needs to be locked for at least one to two years. At present, ETH 2.0 only has the deposit function online, and does not support transfers. It will only support transfer transactions until Phase 2 (at least one year later) is online. According to the pledge income currently given, the highest is only 17%. In the current high currency price, many users consider that the risk of future ETH price decline cannot cover the income, so they are relatively cautious when staking.
The key to breaking the game is to release the ETH 2.0 pledge liquidity so that users can cash out and leave the market at any time. This is also the main attack direction of programs such as ANKR and Rocket pool.
(2) The big business is full of interest
Although the current amount of deposits is insufficient, Odaily Planet Daily has also observed some very interesting phenomena.
Currently, the top ten deposit addresses have deposited a total of 16000 ETH (equivalent to 500 verifiers). It is worth noting that this address is a new address created two months ago, and tens of thousands of ETHs have been transferred from different addresses in the next period of time and have not been transferred out; until the ETH 2.0 deposit contract is opened, the The address responds immediately and deposits all its assets. Therefore, the address is likely to be specially prepared for ETH 2.0 by a large company.
, The current deposit is 8000 ETH (250 verifiers). The address was created in January this year, and the account has 8600 ETH left. In this year’s DeFi boom, this address frequently participates in various DeFi applications including SUSHI, WETH, and liquidity mining.
, Currently deposits 5504 ETH (172 verifiers). This address is the old address created in October 2016, and has participated in two fund disk projects and multiple DeFi projects.
The fourth-ranked address, currently deposits 5024 ETH (157 verifiers). This address is an old address created in January 2018 and has also participated in multiple fund projects and DeFi projects.
Ethereum founder V God also participated in the pledge, with a deposit of 3200 ETH, currently ranking fifth.
(3) Altcoins seek exposure
In fact, in addition to receiving ETH, the deposit contract address also received 83 other tokens.
Previously, TrustNodes reported that the total value of these altcoins was approximately US$54 million. But this is not true value. Because 50 million U.S. dollars is UNIF, which is a “dead coin”, and the real trading volume is only 10 U.S. dollars.
In addition, there are also a large number of altcoins without any trading volume at all. According to OKLink data, only 30 of the 83 tokens have real prices and trading volume, accounting for 36%; the total real value of altcoins in the deposit contract except ETH is about 420,000 US dollars; the highest value is that the value accounts for more than 99.44%.
(Odaily Planet Daily Note: STAKE is the governance token of xDai Chain, which is a USD stablecoin blockchain jointly launched by the MakerDAO Foundation and POA Network, and is also a sidechain compatible with Ethereum.)
Why do these altcoins choose to transfer to the ETH 2.0 deposit contract? Odaily Planet Daily believes that its main purpose is to pursue exposure.
At present, ETH 2.0 has attracted the attention of all parties, and changes in deposit contracts have also attracted attention. Transfer a certain amount of altcoins to this address. If it can stay in the forefront, all parties will also see the tokens when inquiring about the creation address, which plays a role of publicity.
In fact, when the deposit contract went online for one hour at night, Odaily Planet Daily noticed that MEME, DPI, POLY, AAVE, and eMTRG were exposed in this way for the first time.
(Screenshot of Odaily Planet Daily on November 5)
So for these projects exposed on ETH 2.0, would you choose to hold?
(4) People who touch porcelain
In addition to rubbing hot spots on the creation contract address, many copycat projects are also deeply bound to the chariot of ETH 2.0 and begin to “touch porcelain”.
Odaily Planet Daily searched on OKlink and found that there are currently several fake projects named after ETH 2.0. ETH 2.0 is still in an inactive state. The real purpose of most of the projects can be imagined. The purpose may be to make a wave of quick money.
In addition, Odaily Planet Daily also noticed that a fund project called Ethfund (Ether Fund), under the banner of ETH 2.0, arbitrarily collects money.
In the publicity, the project claimed that Ethereum founder V God invested 3000 ETH, but in fact the recipient is not the address related to this project, and the chat screenshot is also suspected to be PS synthesis; in addition, the Ethereum Foundation and The Ethereum Foundation (The Ethereum Foundation) Foundation) has no connection. The project requires users to send ETH to a specific contract address, and claims that they can get more than 200% of the income; encourage users to go offline and get extra income by pulling heads; the project itself does not have a clear profit model, but only funds for new users Repay old users and demolish the capital market model of making up for the western wall.
(Ethereum Foundation and Eth fund are not related in any way, it is purely touch porcelain)
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