This round of bull market Wall Street sucked away the chips, wealth will be shuffled again? (www.blockcast.cc)

After Bitcoin broke through the $20,000 mark on December 16, it went up to $24,188 per coin on the 20th, setting a new historical high again.

Under the skyrocketing, many mainstream media have paid attention. On December 17, the CCTV Finance Channel “Punctuality Finance” reported that Bitcoin completely recovered from the three-year bear market. The analysis pointed out that the impact of the epidemic and the huge increase in demand for hedging from the opening of global monetary policies are important drivers of Bitcoin’s recent surge.

Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan said a few days ago that although Bitcoin exceeds 23,000 US dollars per coin, this does not necessarily mean that the market is “overheated” and will head toward a crash like in December 2017. He believes that in the face of possible growth, we should not use any old standards.

On the other side of Bitcoin’s bullishness, there is no madness comparable to the previous round of bull market in the currency community. Obviously, this is not the same as the “bull market” that most people in the currency circle imagine: many investors in the currency circle clamored that “Bitcoin does not emphasize military virtues”; the proportion of institutional holdings continues to rise, and retail investors lose a lot of bargaining chips; Sichuan Hydropower enters After the dry season, the mine’s electricity consumption became in short supply or even cut off.

I don’t know the meaning of the song for the first time, and then I look at the person in the air. It is true that a bull market is a reshuffle of wealth.

Bitcoin starts a new upward cycle

On December 17, 2017, according to data from Huobi Global, Bitcoin rose to a maximum of US$19,875 per coin that day, setting a high point in the bull market.

Three years later, on December 16, 2020, Bitcoin continued to rise after breaking through the $20,000 mark. On the 20th, it hit an intraday high of $24,188 per coin. Compared with the record low of $3,800 per coin on March 13, the price of Bitcoin has skyrocketed by more than 536%.

“Bitcoin’s breakthrough of the $20,000 mark is not surprising, because the asset is still in its infancy.” Michael Sonnenshein, general manager of Grayscale Investments, said that as the “historical year of Bitcoin” is coming to an end, a breakthrough in this “symbol” “Sex threshold” is appropriate.

Liu Feng, director of the Blockchain Technology and Application Research Center of the Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Change Management, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, said in an interview with the media that in the short term, it is mainly because institutions have entered the market in large numbers and continue to underpin the gains in the market. Profits, continue to buy the bargaining chips that were originally called back, and accumulated several weeks of “energy” for this breakthrough; from a medium-term perspective, the technical landing and market expectations of Ethereum 2.0 are also one of the main forces that break new highs; In the long run, the expectations of the major cycles of the previous bull markets have also given many people in the currency circle more expectations at the critical time of the end of the year.

He believes that as the price of Bitcoin continues to hit new highs and enthusiastic investors enter the FOMO state, the risk of a callback is increasing.

At the same time, Alternative.me data shows that the panic and greed index on December 16 and 17 were both 92, setting a new high for the year. It should be pointed out that the market has been “extremely greedy” for a month.

In addition, it is worth mentioning that in the skyrocketing Bitcoin market, the bears have suffered a lot of losses. According to the data of the contract emperor, the total amount of liquidation on the entire network on December 16 and 17 reached 1.222 billion US dollars, of which the short liquidation amount exceeded 1 billion US dollars.

However, due to the impact of the international situation, the new crown epidemic, and the severe economic setback this year, Bitcoin still has a strong upward trend, and investors are generally optimistic about the market outlook.

Analyst Tina believes that there is no pressure on Bitcoin at present, and a new accelerating upward trend has begun.

Lebit Mining Pool CEO Jiang Zhuoer wrote an article that from the four cycles in Bitcoin history, the current bull market (purple line) and the previous round (green line) have basically the same “rate/time”, which is currently equivalent to The last round of January 2017.

He believes that if it is completely synchronized with the previous cycle, the current bull market will peak on December 20, 2021. However, the larger the Bitcoin volume, the lower the volatility and the slower the rise. If the rise is slow, it is even less likely to trigger the “60-day rise is too large, new funds cannot keep up, leading to a high collapse” event, and the bull market lasts longer. This is also the reason why the bull market in the first three cycles lasted longer and longer and the increase multiples became smaller and smaller. Therefore, assuming that each cycle time increases and the value added decreases linearly, this bull market will last for 1,288 days and peak on June 23, 2022.

The first institution “Longniu” is on the way

Since April this year, the voices of institutions participating in and boosting Bitcoin’s rise are endless.

On December 1st, Mint, the founder of Wonderful Mines, said in an interview with Jiemian News that the domestic currency holdings are declining. “Taking mines as an example, they are shifting to more countries and regions with cheap power resources. Previously, mining was mostly located in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia during the dry season. Now it is moving to Outer Mongolia, Canada, Iceland and the Middle East.” She said. .

She believes that Bitcoin’s bargaining power was first in the hands of miners, and that more than 80% of the mines were in China. Later, the futures market had the right to speak, but after frequent liquidation in the futures market, most users lost their bargaining chips. Nowadays, Bitcoin has ushered in institutional users represented by Wall Street institutions. When the limited amount of Bitcoin is attracted, the bargaining power is likely to be transferred from China to Wall Street.

It is understood that since the beginning of this year, many investment institutions and listed companies, including the Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC) managed by Grayscale Fund, American software giant MicroStrategy, mobile payment giants Square and Galaxy Digital, have become more frequent.

According to statistics from the Bitcoin Treasuries website, as of 16:00 on December 20, 27 publicly listed companies and investment institutions around the world have publicly held 953,190 bitcoins. At 23,700 US dollars per coin, the current value is about 22.6 billion US dollars.

On December 19, according to the data disclosed by Grayscale on Twitter, its total asset management scale increased by US$2.5 billion in the past three days. On December 15, the total scale of Grayscale Asset Management was US$13 billion; as of December 18, this figure had risen to US$15.5 billion.

“Look at the current holdings of these overseas institutions. Any action can affect the currency price. The lower the liquidity, the easier it will affect the price.” Mint said.

The Song Jiaji team of Guosheng Securities Blockchain Research Institute also stated recently that, unlike 2017, an important feature of the Bitcoin boom in the past two years is the participation of more institutions. Song Jiaji’s team believes that the participation of these institutions may directly boost the transaction volume of the “secondary market” of Bitcoin, especially GBTC, which has been continuously buying Bitcoin since its establishment, which is also the reason for pushing Bitcoin to new highs. .

Industry analysts believe that the shift from individual investors to institutional investors is the main reason for the large fluctuations in Bitcoin. At the same time, the continued buying by institutional investors will further amplify the frenzy of the market.

“The current stage of the market is the brand of “Long Bull” from Western institutional investors.” On December 19, Primitive Ventures founding partner Wan Hui said at an event that she divided institutional investors into three categories, one It is a speculative institution that focuses on short-term income, transaction-oriented, and liquidity is the king; the second is an investment institution that focuses on medium-term income, trend-oriented, and legal currency-based income; third is the allocation of institutions, focusing on long-term income, and value storage-oriented. Bitcoin’s correlation with other dollar-denominated assets will decrease.

She pointed out that after Bitcoin breaks through $20,000, the Bitcoin market will definitely become more institutionalized. With the entry of configuration institutions, the rise in bitcoin prices is unimaginable.

Power shortage accelerates mining reshuffle

The myth of Bitcoin continues to play out, but unfortunately, in addition to retail investors, many miners have also been turned away.

Recently, the reporter learned from several mines in Sichuan that due to the shortage of electricity in the dry season, Sichuan has imposed mandatory requirements on cryptocurrency mining. This has made most of the mines very tight, and even many mines are in short supply. Electric state.

On November 22, the Sichuan Provincial Economic and Information Technology Commission’s notice on doing a good job in power production and supply during the dry season of this winter and next spring pointed out that during the dry season of this winter and next spring, the maximum power load of the province’s main grid is expected to be 26 million kilowatts, and the average daily power consumption The amount is about 410 million kWh. However, due to the greater impact of temperature changes on heating load, it will cause violent fluctuations in electricity load. At the same time, due to factors such as the supply of electric coal and possible extreme weather, the guarantee of electricity supply is still facing greater uncertainty. The notification requires that a local power distribution plan be formulated in accordance with the principle of limited warranty.

According to Wu said on the blockchain report, a recent notice from a mining company stated that Sichuan Province requires all hydropower stations to stop supplying power to big data centers from December 8.

According to Tokenview data, the computing power of Bitcoin’s entire network dropped significantly in November compared with October. Although the computing power of the entire network has rebounded in recent days, further observation is needed. Industry insiders believe that this may be related to the skyrocketing Bitcoin, which has caused some computing power to switch to Bitcoin for mining.

Zhu Fang, the co-founder of Binyin Mining Pool, said that mining is a heavy investment, long-term, high-risk business, and it is currently moving towards scale and specialization. The implication is that small miners have weak anti-risk capabilities, and the only way out may be to buy cloud computing power or cloud mining machines.

Not only that, according to The Block report, as the price of Bitcoin exceeds $20,000, the bidding war for top ASIC mining equipment is heating up again.

Since the beginning of December, Bitmain has increased the pre-order price of its flagship S19 series by 20%, and these mining machines will not be shipped until June next year. Some users who booked the January 2021 batch three months ago are now trying to resell the upcoming Bitmain miners at a premium of 75% to 90%. In addition, Bitmain’s main competitor, MicroBT, stated that it has not yet released a pre-order for the next batch of flagship product WhatsMiners, but is expected to adjust the price to match the recent price increase of Bitcoin.

According to the news from the Financial Association on December 17, the price of graphics cards has continued to rise since October, and the GTX1660Super model has soared from around 1400 yuan to 2,000 yuan. Hu Shubin, co-CEO of the world’s top two graphics card brands and PC brand manufacturer Asustek, confirmed on the 16th that it is estimated that the shortage of components will be in the first quarter of next year, and deferred demand is expected to continue into the first half of next year.