[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Bitcoin, market cap recovers $1 trillion Short-term trend ‘continuous strength’ foreshadowing (www.blockcast.cc)
◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>
The cryptocurrency market, which started out strong, has slightly returned the rise due to the burden of profitable sales. However, Bitcoin (BTC) remains strong. Bitcoin price fell below the $50,000 mark due to the recent increase in the value of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, but reached the $50,000 mark in anticipation of a $1.9 trillion super stimulus passed by the U.S. Senate last weekend. It is recovering and is continuing a sharp rise. Many cryptocurrency experts predict that bitcoin’s price rally will continue, although bitcoin has surged almost 500% from this time of last year, but with strong fundamentals, Wall Street institutional adoption and increasing corporate interest, and individual investors steadily entering the market.
Last night, the US New York Stock Market is showing increased volatility as large tech stocks such as Apple and Tesla plunged 4.17% and 5.85%, respectively, despite growing expectations for a recovery in the US economy. On the 8th (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.97% from the previous trading day, the S&P (Standard & Poor’s) 500 index fell 0.54%, and the Nasdaq composite index ended 2.41% decline.
As of 14:00 on the 9th, the price of bitcoin based on the coin market cap is $31,745.60, the 24-hour trading volume is about $53.2 billion, and the market cap is about $1.2 trillion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is USD 1.65 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 60.6%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 12.7%.
The total cryptocurrency market cap increased 2.29% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased 1.27% compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin stronger than Altcoin, and Bitcoin’s market cap increased 2.93% compared to the previous day. Its market share increased by 0.63% compared to the previous day, and it was analyzed that the rate of increase in bitcoin as a whole was higher than the average rate of increase in altcoins.
On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market, which started weakly, surged after about 10:30 with the inflow of low-priced buying, and declined with the opening of sales around 15:00, and the selling price of large and small stocks was relative. It was analyzed as large.
As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is +1.16%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +0.03%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, is +1.23%, and an index centered on medium-sized stocks. WMC, which is +0.52%, recorded -0.36% for WSC, an index centered on small stocks.
As of 14:00 on the 9th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume for the past 24 hours was 52%:48%, and the long/short ratio of each exchange as of 14:00 was analyzed to be strong on average. . (Refer to Table 1)
At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around +35.5, and the basis of Contango and Ethereum futures was maintained at around 4.15. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. March futures traded at $54,275.0, an increase of $2130.0 (+4.08%) compared to the previous day.
◆Main cryptocurrency prices <strong>
As of 14:00 on the 9th, the domestic bitcoin (BTC) price rose 2.15% from the previous day to 61.69 million won, Ethereum (ETH) fell 1.24% to 26.68 million won, and Polkadot (DOT) rose 0.75% to 40,260 won. Recorded. Ada (ADA) fell 0.78% to 1,280 won, Ripple (XRP) rose 0.74% to 546 won, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rose 0.63% to 600,000 won, and Stellar Lumen (XLM) fell 0.21% to 477 won. , Chainlink (LINK) is trading at 35,220 won, down 3.03% from the previous day, and Litecoin (LTC) is trading at 223,350 won, up 1.92%.
At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market price based on CoinMarket Cap is on the rise of 8 out of the top 10 market caps as of the last 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price is $53,896.03, up 6.52% from the same time the day before. Ethereum (ETH) rose 6.93% to $1,842.33, while Binance Coin (BNB) rose 3.42% to $244.32. Cardano (ADA) fell 0.35% from the previous day to $1.14, Polkadot (DOT) rose by 3.90% to $36.15, Ripple (XRP) rose by 3.14% to $0.4802, Uniswap (UNI) rose by 0.08% to $34.03, Right. Coin (LTC) rose 4.83% to 197.81 dollars, and Chainlink (LINK) rose 9.96% to 31.50 dollars.
◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>
As the bitcoin price hits an uptrend, a positive outlook is gaining momentum again. It is predominantly forecast that the uptrend will continue in the future as it breaks through the 50,000 dollar, which has served as a resistance line. However, many experts point out the technical prerequisite that the $52,000, which has served as a resistance line, should serve as a support line in the future. In addition, macroeconomic conditions, such as rising US Treasury yields, are also factors to watch out for.
(Positive opinion)
① Cryptocurrency analyst Michael van der Pope said, “It is important for Bitcoin to turn the 52,000 dollar resistance line into a support line,” he said. “If this happens, BTC will rise rapidly to the 56,000 dollar level.” “It is necessary to adjust the bitcoin price before the upward trend resumes,” he explained. “The current momentum slowdown is very natural.”
② Mike McGlon, chief strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said recently that investors are rapidly shifting their investment targets from gold to bitcoin, as investors have increased their preference for bitcoin as a store of value. He pointed out that while precious metals, which have existed for thousands of years, continue to remain as collectibles, Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation.
③CEO Young Joo, CryptoQuant’s CEO, said, “A fairly high coinbase premium is a bullish signal,” and said, “It shows that institutional investors and individuals with high net worth are buying bitcoins.” Coinbase is the world’s largest Bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange with over 40 million users.
④ Cointelegraph, a media specialized in cryptocurrency, cited Glassnode data and said, “The amount of bitcoins stored in the centralized exchange (CEX) has decreased by about 20% in 12 months.” According to the media, this is that investors are moving funds from exchanges to cold storage for long-term holdings of bitcoins, which could have a positive impact on bitcoin prices.
⑤ Cryptocurrency trader Peter Brant pointed out, “Many experts point out that Bitcoin has risen excessively, but BTC will continue to rise in the future.” He said, “The reason for the increase in BTC price is that the depreciation of the US dollar has just begun,” and predicted that the dollar purchasing power will continue to decline in the future.
⑥ Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Asset, a cryptocurrency investment management company, stressed that the bailout would have a huge impact on the value of the US dollar and Bitcoin. “The purchasing power of the dollar has fallen sharply,” he said. “The US Senate once again emphasized why BTC is so important and valuable to the world.”
⑦ Ben Shapiro, one of the famous conservative commentators in the United States, said that the success and failure of cryptocurrency is entirely based on public opinion, and as Bitcoin becomes a way out of the currency being devalued by its own government, more and more investors. Said that he would be given a choice. He also said that market confidence is important in the competition of digital currencies, and in a highly volatile market, the more “Elon Musk” is, the greater the belief that it is real.
(Neutral opinion)
① Aayush Jindal, an analyst at Cryptocurrency NewsBTC, said, “If the BTC/USD pair price remains above USD 49,500 and USD 50,500, we can start a new rise, and if we exceed the USD 52,000 resistance level, we will start at USD 54,500. It can continue to be strong,” he predicted.
② Rakesh Upadhyay, a cryptocurrency analyst at Cointelegraph, a cryptocurrency specialty media, said, “Bitcoin can raise its price above the 20th exponential moving average (EMA, $48,484 line) and the $52,040 overhead resistance. If so, we can retest the all-time high of $58,341 and if we cross it we could reach $72,112”, but “conversely, if the price falls below $46,313 without crossing the main resistance band, the BTC/USD pair would be as simple as 50 days. It could fall below the moving average (SMA·$42,861 line),” he diagnosed.
(Negative opinion)
① Cointelegraph predicted that if the $52,000 is exceeded, the door will open to move toward $55,000-6,000, but failure may lead to a retest of $46,000. However, Bitcoin has already tested $52,000 several times, and this resistance is expected to weaken with each test.
② US left-wing tycoon Elizabeth Warren, Democratic Party Senator Elizabeth Warren, warned in a recent interview with CNBC that “Bitcoin is inherently highly speculative. Bitcoin will eventually be blown up, with bad results.”
◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>
The daily bitcoin market price (see Figure 6) maintained a strong trend every day and then rose along with the surge in CME Bitcoin futures in the U.S. on the morning of the same day, exceeding $54,000. Technically, all major resistance bands have been breached, and the moving average is shifting back to normal alignment.
According to the research institute’s market data analysis, the trend of the Bitcoin balance showed a sharp decline rather than the period just before the decline. (Refer to the analysis of mass trading volume according to on-chain indicators after the bitcoin plunge on page 16.) This is estimated to be due to the steady inflow of large quantities of purchases from institutions even during the downturn. .
Today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the expected settlement price for the two stocks was estimated at $51,400 and $1,780, respectively, as of 14 o’clock. However, the buying trend of bitcoin is very strong, and all call options over $49,000 based on the strike price remain strong, so it does not drop until the time of settlement, but a slight decline is expected due to the imminent settlement time (17 Refer to the option price table on the page’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the same day’) It is expected that this period will be able to attempt to buy the lows once again.
Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change on the day of $51,350. Bitcoin’s current price is above the current price and above this price, so it seems safe to try to buy at least when the price falls below the market price and then recovers. If the market fails to recover or falls to $51,350, it is a considerable correction market and should be put on hold and watched. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.
◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>
As of 14 o’clock on the 9th, the technical analysis of the daily price movements of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, all showed’active buy’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 6 of the oscillator indicators in Upbit came out of’Buy’, 0’Sell’, and 0’Neutral’ opinions, and’Strong Buy’ opinions, and the moving average indicator is 12’Buy’ and It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion with zero’sell’.
If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 7,’Sell’ is 0, and’Neutral’ is 1, sending a’active buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 12, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with zero.
◆Quantitative analysis
◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>
The’Fear and Greed Index’ provided by the cryptocurrency data provider Alternative.me maintained the’Extreme Greed Level’ with 81 points as of the previous day. This indicates that overheated investor sentiment continues. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism.
◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of March 9, 14:00) <Strengthening>
The price of bitcoin continues to rise despite a number of anxiety factors, such as a rise in the dollar value and a decline in the stock market due to a rise in US Treasury yields. As of 14 o’clock on the 9th, the US CME Bitcoin futures’ return to the beginning of the year was 65.28%, up 3.95% compared to last Thursday, maintaining the No. 1 ranking among valuation assets. The second place was oil futures at 36.6%, which rose 7.91%, the most among comparable assets. During the same period, the dollar index and the S&P 500 rose, while this weakly flattened, and the S&P 500 fell 2.22% on the back of rising US Treasury yields.
On the previous day, the 10-year US Treasury bond rate reached 1.5% during the intraday, rising. By the close of the stock market, it traded at the 1.47% level. Despite OPEC’s policy to increase production the day before, international oil prices turned to rising as reports that some oil-producing countries are considering ways to maintain production cuts.
The previous day’s international oil prices continued their recent surge, with the WTI April prices exceeding $67 during the intraday. It is known that Yemen’s Huti rebels launched a drone and ballistic missile attack against Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facility. Seems crazy.
◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of March 9, 14:00) <Strengthening>
Although the price of Bitcoin has skyrocketed, most cryptocurrencies have a limited rate of increase. Many stocks declined in the rate of increase of the top stocks by market capitalization. This week, Uni-Token (UNI) of Uniswap, a distinctively representative DeFi (decentralized finance) protocol, entered the top 10 cryptocurrencies based on market capitalization. Uniswap is the first time DeFi tokens have entered the top 10 market cap. As of 14:00 on the 9th, Uniswap (UNI) ranked first with 597.37%, Cardano (ADA) ranked second with 550.03%, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked third with 545.39%, and Polkadot (DOT) ranked third with 338.54% Ranked 4th with 165.94% and 5th with Chainlink.
◇Bitcoin on-chain indicator analysis
① Analysis of Bitcoin transaction volume on the day <Strengthening>
Analyzing the trading volume of BTC/USD’s on-chain data on the same day makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indicator 1 in Figure 13 shows the spot trading volume of BTCUSD, BTCUSD or BTCUSDC on 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), Indicator 2 shows the trading volume of BTCUSD or XBTUSD indefinite futures on 7 derivatives exchanges (Binance Futures, OKX Futures, OKX Futures, Huobi Futures, FTX Futures, Kraken Futures, Delibit, BitMEX) in real time. Sum up and display.
In the period when the bitcoin price rises, the transaction volume rarely decreases. This also happened with Ethereum (see Figure 13-2). The rising trend as the trading volume decreases is a phenomenon captured by soaring stocks, and the current trend is likely to accelerate.
Looking at the indicators in Figure 14, it can be seen that the total number of purchases is greater than the total number of sales, and the price volatility is moving in the upward direction, so it is likely to close higher on the day. Today is the expiration date of daily Bitcoin and Ethereum options on the DRBT exchange, and the expected settlement price for both stocks is estimated at $51,400 and $1,780, respectively, as of 14:00.
② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>
As Bitcoin and Ethereum prices rise, the gap with the Kimchi premium index is widening, but we believe it is still within a certain range. Of course, since it is a bull market, it does not cross easily, and even if it crosses, it soon resolves, but it is not a welcome phenomenon in a bull market that this phenomenon repeats itself. Therefore, it is recommended to respond somewhat conservatively to the profit target until the crossover phenomenon is significantly improved.
③ Analysis of mass transaction volume according to on-chain indicators after the plunge in bitcoin>Strengthening>
Figure 18 shows the trend of the Bitcoin balance held by major exchanges. As the recent bitcoin plunged after an all-time high, the bitcoin balance, which has increased a lot, has declined markedly now when the market price has skyrocketed. Therefore, an additional rise in the bitcoin market is expected.
Figure 19, contrary to Figure 18, shows the amount of money leaked from Coinbase, the US cryptocurrency exchange, as the bitcoin price fell from its all-time high. The average purchase price was about $48,000, and it was confirmed that on March 2nd, a large quantity of purchases equal to the sum of the existing purchases was added. This can be viewed as a long-term investor mainly for institutions, etc., so it acts as a very positive factor for the rise of bitcoin price.
◇Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <Strengthening>
As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 20), the number of contracts was from 10 o’clock 26.69% to 14 o’clock 38.85%. In terms of premium, it changed from 30.57% (buy call option):3.47% (buy put option) to 47.23% (buy call option):7.17% (buy put option) at 10 o’clock, but the trend continues to rise. It can be said that it means that it will be.
On the other hand, Figure 21 is a reorganization of the bitcoin option price data, which is due on the day of the Deribit Exchange as of 14:00. From $49,000 to $54,000, the strike price, all call options are strong. However, when the maturity is only 3 hours left, the delta of the strike price of $55,000 call option is only 0.12, so it is highly likely that about $54,400 formed at the beginning of 14 o’clock will be the highest bitcoin price before expiration. This position offers short-term investors the best intraday return opportunities.
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